Could Donald Trump have made more money sitting on his hands?

The short version Plausibly yes. It does seem plausible that Mr. Trump could be richer today if he had invested his inheritance in a broad range of stocks and left it there from 1974 until today. The long version First, some assumptions (which you should feel free to argue with the the comments below). Assumptions: Assume thatContinue reading “Could Donald Trump have made more money sitting on his hands?”

The best way to make a fortune investing in startups

The strategy of investing in hundreds of early stage startups per year appears, at least in one case, to allow a return of more than 80% year on year. This is the first of a series of blogs addressing this type of strategy, pioneered by Y-Combinator, Techstars, amongst others, and known as the “Accelerator” orContinue reading “The best way to make a fortune investing in startups”

Uncertain about uncertainty?

How uncertain are we of our uncertainties? What risks are there of risks? Sometimes our analysis goes too deep. Sometimes we build predictions of predictions that predict reality, introducing information that really was never there. Yet, isn’t the uncertainty of uncertainty intriguing, illusive and important, in understanding our climate, our economies our science and our engineering? InContinue reading “Uncertain about uncertainty?”